From Harold J. Breaux:
Fake News Elected Donald Trump
As we install our new President a debate has continued over the legitimacy of his election. While the debate has centered around the alleged Russian involvement this writer believes the issue centers around a combination of factors including
a.) release of the Comey letter concerning Anthony Weiner’s computer that by implication might contain a stash of Hillary Clinton e-mails, which belatedly was corrected by the FBI Director,
b.) Russian involvement both through hacking and creating and/or accelerating the dissemination of Fake News.
c.) The skewing and dissemination trough social media of Fake News against Hillary Clinton by ideologues and commercial entrepreneurs.
This writer, a mathematician by profession, has extensively studied the Fake News issue and applied mathematical analysis to the issue and written a formal paper on the topic. The end result is a definitive conclusion that is described by the title of my paper, namely “Mathematics Shows That Fake News Elected Trump as President”. The paper accentuates the importance of the U.S. needing to develop and implement measures to assure that Fake News does not ever again play such a critical role in U. S. elections.
I have posted the paper on my web site at: www.complexpolitics.wordpress.com
The abstract of the paper is listed below.
The phenomenon of Fake News, aimed at voters in the Presidential Election of 2016, is examined from the standpoint of voting results, demographics of voters usage of social media as source of news, slanting statistics of Fake News on social media platforms and data on voters propensity or inclination to be swayed by Fake News.
A mathematical model is derived to estimate how votes were thus swung to both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump by ideologues and entrepreneurs (and possibly Russia). The model focuses initially on the aggregation of votes needed to swing the Electoral College votes from Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but uses a nationwide proportionality analysis for the eventual model. The end result is conclusive. Fake News led to the Electoral College Victory of Donald Trump. A remarkable numerical result from the model is that the aggregate percentage of swing votes lost to Clinton (1.07 %), (based on the reported values of 17% of social media readers having a propensity to switch after reading Fake News), when added to her actual popular vote margin of 2.22%, equals a margin of 3.29%. This compares to the aggregate or average final poll prediction results of 3.3% for Clinton reported by Real Clear Politics . So as not to rely on a single estimate of propensity to switch, a parametric analysis is conducted varying this factor.
The analysis shows that this factor can be as low as 2.4% (compared to the reported 17%) and still be sufficient to switch 379,000 votes nationally, the amount needed proportionally to swing the 39,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that gave Trump the Electoral College victory.
Harold J. Breaux